Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.425670 0.491081 0.562239 0.645271 0.739369 0.842563 0.964170
2025-09-14 0.305011 0.391885 0.495763 0.628538 0.793089 0.989628 1.241398
2025-09-21 0.236375 0.329319 0.448573 0.611552 0.827045 1.100588 1.472217
2025-09-28 0.191347 0.285349 0.413261 0.597990 0.855476 1.198765 1.687563
2025-10-05 0.166904 0.263895 0.402671 0.612676 0.918636 1.343539 1.972420
2025-10-12 0.152086 0.253261 0.404572 0.643089 1.004178 1.523551 2.318112
2025-10-19 0.136480 0.238655 0.397933 0.658736 1.067810 1.675464 2.633573
2025-10-26 0.121553 0.222688 0.386672 0.664971 1.116206 1.806869 2.926694
2025-11-02 0.107556 0.206092 0.372008 0.663360 1.150827 1.918281 3.195588
2025-11-09 0.094358 0.188911 0.354071 0.653818 1.170685 2.006634 3.432964
2025-11-16 0.083156 0.173697 0.337537 0.644421 1.188996 2.092487 3.670594
2025-11-23 0.071892 0.156721 0.315756 0.623153 1.184359 2.139117 3.845540
2025-11-30 0.068798 0.155587 0.323298 0.656259 1.278941 2.360945 4.332469
2025-12-07 0.059962 0.141522 0.304759 0.638986 1.281514 2.425290 4.555582
2025-12-14 0.052340 0.128845 0.287326 0.621721 1.281999 2.485087 4.773597
2025-12-21 0.046074 0.118167 0.272574 0.607951 1.287375 2.553190 5.009774
2025-12-28 0.043099 0.114551 0.272070 0.622860 1.349312 2.728699 5.451761
2026-01-04 0.041685 0.114417 0.278977 0.653734 1.445182 2.973551 6.036644
2026-01-11 0.039199 0.111293 0.278907 0.669618 1.511725 3.166549 6.535170
2026-01-18 0.036261 0.106585 0.274692 0.675947 1.558792 3.324499 6.975645
2026-01-25 0.033102 0.100808 0.267289 0.674311 1.588644 3.449955 7.359701
2026-02-01 0.029791 0.094094 0.256850 0.664625 1.600189 3.539129 7.677008
2026-02-08 0.026843 0.087904 0.246937 0.655086 1.611065 3.627222 7.996736